Mixed / fixed-period mortgage · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Mixed / fixed-period mortgage in Portugal rises from 3.55% today to 4.30% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Data as of 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Portuguese mortgages have historically been Euribor-linked with a bank spread on top, so the outstanding stock reprices within three, six or twelve months of a rate move depending on the index chosen. Fixed and mixed-rate products have gained share since 2022 but the floating stock remains larger than in northern Europe, which makes Portuguese household debt service unusually sensitive to ECB decisions.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Portugal, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.50% | 3.60% | +1.09pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.51% | 3.63% | +1.13pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.73% | 3.71% | +0.98pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.73% | 3.77% | +1.04pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.81% | 3.83% | +1.02pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.99% | 3.92% | +0.93pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.99% | 3.99% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-05 | 3.06% | 4.06% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-06 | 3.14% | 4.13% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-07 | 3.19% | 4.20% | +1.01pp |
| 2027-08 | 3.19% | 4.25% | +1.06pp |
| 2027-09 | 3.21% | 4.30% | +1.09pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +1.80pp |
| Estonia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.70pp |
| Latvia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.50pp |
| Greece | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| Lithuania | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| Netherlands | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| Cyprus | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| Italy | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| Ireland | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| Belgium | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.20pp |
| Germany | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.15pp |
| Austria | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| Slovenia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| Portugal | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| Croatia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| Luxembourg | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| France | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +0.95pp |
| Spain | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| Finland | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| Malta | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +0.80pp |