20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso in Italy rises from 3.75% today to 4.31% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Data as of 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Italian borrowers choose between a mutuo a tasso fisso, usually 20 to 30 years fixed and priced off the euro swap curve, and a mutuo a tasso variabile indexed to Euribor plus a spread. The fixed share rose sharply after 2022. Italian spreads over the ECB rate also carry a sovereign component: because Italian banks hold large BTP portfolios, movements in the BTP-Bund spread feed into bank funding costs and therefore into mortgage pricing.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Italy, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.79% | +1.32pp |
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.82% | +1.35pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.55% | 3.86% | +1.31pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.68% | 3.92% | +1.24pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.68% | 3.97% | +1.28pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.75% | 4.02% | +1.27pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.86% | 4.08% | +1.23pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.86% | 4.13% | +1.28pp |
| 2027-05 | 2.92% | 4.18% | +1.27pp |
| 2027-06 | 2.96% | 4.23% | +1.27pp |
| 2027-07 | 2.98% | 4.28% | +1.30pp |
| 2027-08 | 2.98% | 4.31% | +1.33pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +2.05pp |
| Estonia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.95pp |
| Latvia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.75pp |
| Greece | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| Lithuania | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| Netherlands | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| Cyprus | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| Italy | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| Ireland | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| Belgium | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.45pp |
| Germany | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.40pp |
| Austria | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| Slovenia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| Portugal | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| Croatia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| Luxembourg | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| France | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +1.20pp |
| Spain | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| Finland | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| Malta | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +1.05pp |