3-5-Year fixed · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 3-5-Year fixed in Ireland rises from 3.75% today to 4.50% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Data as of 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Irish mortgage rates have historically sat above the euro-area average, a legacy of high non-performing loan ratios, a concentrated lending market and capital requirements on Irish mortgage books. Fixed periods of one to five years dominate new lending, with green mortgage discounts for energy-efficient homes now a significant part of the pricing. Because the typical fix is short, Irish borrowers roll onto new rates far more often than German or Dutch ones, which makes the ECB path unusually consequential for anyone buying now.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Ireland, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected 3-5-Year fixed | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.50% | 3.80% | +1.30pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.51% | 3.83% | +1.33pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.73% | 3.91% | +1.18pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.73% | 3.97% | +1.24pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.81% | 4.03% | +1.22pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.99% | 4.12% | +1.13pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.99% | 4.19% | +1.20pp |
| 2027-05 | 3.06% | 4.26% | +1.20pp |
| 2027-06 | 3.14% | 4.33% | +1.20pp |
| 2027-07 | 3.19% | 4.40% | +1.21pp |
| 2027-08 | 3.19% | 4.45% | +1.26pp |
| 2027-09 | 3.21% | 4.50% | +1.29pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +1.80pp |
| Estonia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.70pp |
| Latvia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.50pp |
| Greece | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| Lithuania | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| Netherlands | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| Cyprus | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| Italy | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| Ireland | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| Belgium | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.20pp |
| Germany | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.15pp |
| Austria | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| Slovenia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| Portugal | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| Croatia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| Luxembourg | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| France | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +0.95pp |
| Spain | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| Finland | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| Malta | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +0.80pp |