20-25-Year taux fixe · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 20-25-Year taux fixe in France rises from 3.45% today to 4.20% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Data as of 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
The French norm is a taux fixe running for the whole term, typically 20 to 25 years, so a French borrower who signs today has locked their rate for the life of the loan. Rates are constrained by the taux d'usure, a legal ceiling set quarterly at the previous quarter's average rate plus one third. Because the ceiling lags the market, French origination volumes visibly seize up when market rates rise faster than the cap, which is exactly what happened through 2022 and 2023.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in France, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected 20-25-Year taux fixe | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.50% | 3.50% | +1.00pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.51% | 3.53% | +1.03pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.73% | 3.61% | +0.88pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.73% | 3.67% | +0.94pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.81% | 3.73% | +0.92pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.99% | 3.82% | +0.83pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.99% | 3.89% | +0.90pp |
| 2027-05 | 3.06% | 3.96% | +0.90pp |
| 2027-06 | 3.14% | 4.03% | +0.90pp |
| 2027-07 | 3.19% | 4.10% | +0.91pp |
| 2027-08 | 3.19% | 4.15% | +0.96pp |
| 2027-09 | 3.21% | 4.20% | +0.99pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +1.80pp |
| Estonia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.70pp |
| Latvia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.50pp |
| Greece | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| Lithuania | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| Netherlands | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| Cyprus | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| Italy | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| Ireland | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| Belgium | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.20pp |
| Germany | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.15pp |
| Austria | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| Slovenia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| Portugal | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| Croatia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| Luxembourg | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| France | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +0.95pp |
| Spain | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| Finland | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| Malta | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +0.80pp |