Fixed-rate mortgage · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Fixed-rate mortgage in Croatia rises from 3.55% today to 4.11% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
Data as of 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Croatia adopted the euro in January 2023, so its mortgage market is still converging on euro-area norms. Lending is split between fixed-period contracts and loans tied to the national reference rate (NRS) or Euribor, and the spread over the ECB rate reflects a banking sector that only recently swapped kuna funding for euro funding.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in Croatia, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| Month | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | Projected Fixed-rate mortgage | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.59% | +1.12pp |
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.62% | +1.15pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.55% | 3.66% | +1.11pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.68% | 3.72% | +1.04pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.68% | 3.77% | +1.08pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.75% | 3.82% | +1.07pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.86% | 3.88% | +1.03pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.86% | 3.93% | +1.08pp |
| 2027-05 | 2.92% | 3.98% | +1.07pp |
| 2027-06 | 2.96% | 4.03% | +1.07pp |
| 2027-07 | 2.98% | 4.08% | +1.10pp |
| 2027-08 | 2.98% | 4.11% | +1.13pp |
| Country | Typical Product | Mortgage Rate | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +2.05pp |
| Estonia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.95pp |
| Latvia | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.75pp |
| Greece | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| Lithuania | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| Netherlands | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| Cyprus | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| Italy | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| Ireland | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| Belgium | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.45pp |
| Germany | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.40pp |
| Austria | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| Slovenia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| Portugal | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| Croatia | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| Luxembourg | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| France | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +1.20pp |
| Spain | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| Finland | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| Malta | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +1.05pp |