The SNB watch tool — market-implied SNB rate probability for every quarterly assessment, recalculated daily
Swiss National Bank Analysis's next policy meeting is scheduled for 24 September 2026. The current market-implied probability of no change is 97%.
What is the Swiss National Bank?
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is Switzerland's central bank, responsible for keeping prices stable and the Swiss franc strong. Unlike other central banks, the SNB is famous for actively buying and selling foreign currencies to control the Swiss franc's value.
Key Facts:
The Swiss National Bank conducts monetary policy as an independent central bank, mandated by Article 99 of the Federal Constitution to ensure price stability while taking due account of economic developments. The SNB's three-pillar monetary policy strategy consists of: (1) a definition of price stability (CPI growth below 2% annually), (2) a medium-term conditional inflation forecast, and (3) operational implementation through the SNB policy rate and foreign exchange interventions.
Based on economic indicators and analyst predictions, here's what experts think the SNB will do at upcoming meetings:
Each column is one meeting; each row is a policy rate level. Darker means the market puts more weight on that level being in force after that meeting. The outlined row is today’s rate. Read down a column for one meeting’s full distribution — each column sums to 100%.
Shading: share of probability on that rate level. Blank cells carry under 0.5%.
Based on SARON 3-month futures. Shows where markets expect the SNB policy rate to average at each future date, comparing today's expectations with those from 1 and 4 weeks ago.
Data as of September 11, 2026
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The SNB meets four times per year - once each quarter. Unlike the Federal Reserve which meets 8 times yearly, the SNB follows a more deliberate quarterly schedule:
| Meeting Date | Quarter | Status | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 20, 2025 | Q1 2025 | Completed | Policy rate maintained at 0.25% |
| June 19, 2025 | Q2 2025 | Completed | Cut to 0.00%, inflation forecast revised down |
| September 26, 2025 | Q3 2025 | Upcoming | CHF strength assessment, FX intervention stance |
| December 12, 2025 | Q4 2025 | Scheduled | Year-end assessment, 2026 outlook |
| March 19, 2026 | Q1 2026 | Scheduled | Quarterly inflation forecast update |
The Swiss franc is very strong, making Swiss exports expensive for other countries. The SNB is considering whether to cut interest rates further or intervene in currency markets to weaken the franc and help Swiss businesses.
Markets are increasingly focused on the SNB's tolerance for CHF strength, with EUR/CHF trading near historical lows around 0.93-0.95. The combination of global rate convergence toward Swiss levels and safe-haven flows continues to pressure the franc higher, challenging the SNB's price stability mandate through disinflationary import effects.
A strong Swiss franc is like having expensive prices in a store - fewer people want to buy Swiss products. The SNB has tools to make the franc cheaper (weaker), which would help Swiss companies sell more abroad.
Limited SARON futures liquidity constrains market-based policy expectations, with most positioning reflected in FX forwards and cross-currency basis swaps. Current CHF overvaluation estimates range from 10-15% on REER basis, suggesting intervention threshold potential around EUR/CHF 0.90-0.92.
Why is SNB analysis different?
Unlike the US Federal Reserve where we can use financial markets to predict rate changes, Switzerland's markets are smaller. Instead, we rely on:
Our SNB probability calculations utilize a multi-factor approach combining: (1) consensus forecasts from 15+ Swiss financial institutions weighted by historical accuracy, (2) limited SARON futures analysis with appropriate bid-ask spread adjustments, (3) econometric models incorporating KOF leading indicators, inflation expectations, and CHF REER dynamics, and (4) textual analysis of SNB communications using NLP sentiment scoring.
What makes Switzerland special?
These factors mean the SNB often fights against a strengthening currency rather than trying to strengthen it like other central banks.
Explore market-implied rate expectations for other major central banks: