The SNB watch tool — market-implied SNB rate probability for every quarterly assessment, recalculated daily
Swiss National Bank Analysis's next policy meeting is scheduled for 10 December 2026. The current market-implied probability of no change is 90%.
What is the Swiss National Bank?
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is Switzerland's central bank, responsible for keeping prices stable and the Swiss franc strong. Unlike other central banks, the SNB is famous for actively buying and selling foreign currencies to control the Swiss franc's value.
Key Facts:
The Swiss National Bank conducts monetary policy as an independent central bank, mandated by Article 99 of the Federal Constitution to ensure price stability while taking due account of economic developments. The SNB's three-pillar monetary policy strategy consists of: (1) a definition of price stability (CPI growth below 2% annually), (2) a medium-term conditional inflation forecast, and (3) operational implementation through the SNB policy rate and foreign exchange interventions.
Based on economic indicators and analyst predictions, here's what experts think the SNB will do at upcoming meetings:
Each column is one meeting; each row is a policy rate level. Darker means the market puts more weight on that level being in force after that meeting. The outlined row is today’s rate. Read down a column for one meeting’s full distribution — each column sums to 100%.
Shading: share of probability on that rate level. Blank cells carry under 0.5%.
Based on SARON 3-month futures. Shows where markets expect the SNB policy rate to average at each future date, comparing today's expectations with those from 1 and 4 weeks ago.
Data as of October 27, 2026
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Azerbaijan’s central bank discusses cooperation with Swiss National Bank Trend News Agency
South Africa’s Central Bank Sees A Long Road Back To 3% Inflation Finimize
South Africa's central bank governor Kganyago sees upside risks to inflation Reuters
Malaysia Central Bank Chief Signals Room to Act as Inflation Risks Rise Bloomberg.com
Singapore central bank keeps monetary policy unchanged — Channel NewsAsia UA.NEWS
S'pore central bank maintains monetary policy amid manageable inflation chinadailyhk
Central Bank of Sri Lanka releases Financial Stability Review for Year 2026 Island.lk
Swiss central bank: Stablecoins could disrupt monetary policy IDNFinancials
Swiss Government Says Federal Department Of Finance And The Swiss National Bank Have Signed An Agreement On SNB's Profit Distributions For 2026 To 2030 TradingView
Introductory remarks by Mr Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board of the SNB, Mr Antoine Martin, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the SNB, and Ms Petra Tschudin, Member of the Governing Board of the SNB, at the Media News Conference of the Swiss National Bank, Berne, 24 September 2026.
Speech by Mr Antoine Martin, Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the University of Basel, Basel, 16 August 2026.
The SNB meets four times per year - once each quarter. Unlike the Federal Reserve which meets 8 times yearly, the SNB follows a more deliberate quarterly schedule:
| Meeting Date | Quarter | Status | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 20, 2025 | Q1 2025 | Completed | Policy rate maintained at 0.25% |
| June 19, 2025 | Q2 2025 | Completed | Cut to 0.00%, inflation forecast revised down |
| September 26, 2025 | Q3 2025 | Upcoming | CHF strength assessment, FX intervention stance |
| December 12, 2025 | Q4 2025 | Scheduled | Year-end assessment, 2026 outlook |
| March 19, 2026 | Q1 2026 | Scheduled | Quarterly inflation forecast update |
The Swiss franc is very strong, making Swiss exports expensive for other countries. The SNB is considering whether to cut interest rates further or intervene in currency markets to weaken the franc and help Swiss businesses.
Markets are increasingly focused on the SNB's tolerance for CHF strength, with EUR/CHF trading near historical lows around 0.93-0.95. The combination of global rate convergence toward Swiss levels and safe-haven flows continues to pressure the franc higher, challenging the SNB's price stability mandate through disinflationary import effects.
A strong Swiss franc is like having expensive prices in a store - fewer people want to buy Swiss products. The SNB has tools to make the franc cheaper (weaker), which would help Swiss companies sell more abroad.
Limited SARON futures liquidity constrains market-based policy expectations, with most positioning reflected in FX forwards and cross-currency basis swaps. Current CHF overvaluation estimates range from 10-15% on REER basis, suggesting intervention threshold potential around EUR/CHF 0.90-0.92.
Why is SNB analysis different?
Unlike the US Federal Reserve where we can use financial markets to predict rate changes, Switzerland's markets are smaller. Instead, we rely on:
Our SNB probability calculations utilize a multi-factor approach combining: (1) consensus forecasts from 15+ Swiss financial institutions weighted by historical accuracy, (2) limited SARON futures analysis with appropriate bid-ask spread adjustments, (3) econometric models incorporating KOF leading indicators, inflation expectations, and CHF REER dynamics, and (4) textual analysis of SNB communications using NLP sentiment scoring.
While the market-implied probabilities above show what traders expect, the theoretical rate below shows what a standard economic rule would suggest for the SNB policy rate given current inflation and growth.
This is a simple rule-of-thumb benchmark, not a forecast and not the SNB’s own model. It shows what a standard textbook rule would suggest given the latest inflation and growth data.
This benchmark applies a Taylor rule to Swiss CPI inflation and an HP-filter output gap, and compares it with the SNB policy rate. It is a transparent cross-bank benchmark, not a reproduction of the SNB’s reaction function.
| Indicator | Current | Target/Neutral | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.99% | 1.00% | -0.01 pp |
| Output Gap | 0.41% | 0.00% | +0.41 pp |
| Unemployment | 5.03% | N/A | N/A |
The SNB has no point inflation target: price stability is defined as CPI inflation below 2% over the medium term. The 1.0% shown as target is simply the midpoint of the 0-2% range, used only so the rule has a number to work with; it is not an SNB-published target. Unemployment is the ILO quarterly rate, shown for context only.
Start with a neutral rate, add current inflation, then adjust for how far inflation is from target and whether the economy is running above or below its potential.
Unemployment is shown as a cross-check for labour-market slack and does not enter the formula.
See the full Taylor Rule methodologyPolicy-rule mapping: a standard Taylor rule with inflation entering in levels and as a deviation from target, and macro slack through the output gap. The result is not floored at zero, so a negative value is possible and is shown as computed.
Output gap: Hodrick-Prescott filter (lambda = 1600) on the full history of seasonally adjusted real GDP. The HP filter is biased at the end of the sample, exactly where the latest quarters sit, so the output gap is a low-confidence estimate and can be revised materially as new GDP data arrive.
Shows only the daily model runs recorded so far; no earlier history is reconstructed.
Read this with care. The SNB policy rate is 0% and the SNB also uses foreign-exchange interventions and negative rates when needed, which a simple rule cannot capture. The neutral rate (0%) and the 1% inflation midpoint are our assumptions.
When the actual rate is below the theoretical rate, policy is more accommodative than the rule suggests; when above, more restrictive.
Model: Taylor rule benchmark (not the SNB’s macroeconomic model). Assumptions: neutral real rate 0.0% (low and conservative, but uncertain), inflation scalar 1.0% (band midpoint, not official), inflation-gap coefficient 0.5 and output-gap coefficient 0.5 (same as the ECB and BoC benchmarks). The franc exchange rate and interventions, central to SNB policy, are not in the rule.
If any input cannot be retrieved on a given day, no model is calculated and this section is not shown; no placeholder values are used.
What makes Switzerland special?
These factors mean the SNB often fights against a strengthening currency rather than trying to strengthen it like other central banks.
Explore market-implied rate expectations for other major central banks: