# Central Bank Watch > Live rate change probabilities for 9 central banks: Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA, BoC, RBI, SNB, PBOC. Market-implied interest rate odds for every 2026 policy meeting. ## Core Pages - [Central Bank Watch](https://centralbank.watch/): Live rate change probabilities for 9 central banks: Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA, BoC, RBI, SNB, PBOC. Market-implied interest rate odds for every 2026 policy meeting. ## Central Banks - [Bank of Canada Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/bank-of-canada/): The free BoC watch tool — live BoC rate probability from CORRA futures for every 2026 Governing Council meeting, recalculated daily. - [Bank of England Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/bank-of-england/): The free BoE watch tool — live BoE rate probability from GBP futures for every 2026 MPC meeting, recalculated daily. - [Bank of Japan Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/bank-of-japan/): The free BoJ watch tool — live BoJ rate probability from 3-month TONA futures for every 2026 MPM meeting, with yield curve control context. - [China's Central Bank Explained](https://centralbank.watch/peoples-bank-of-china/): The free PBoC watch tool — live LPR and MLF policy rate tracking for 2026, with monetary policy analysis and yuan impact. - [European Central Bank Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/european-central-bank/): The free ECB watch tool — live ECB rate probability from EUR futures for every 2026 Governing Council meeting, recalculated daily. - [Federal Reserve Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/): Free Fed rate monitor and FOMC watch tool — live Fed rate probability from fed funds futures, recalculated daily for every 2026 FOMC meeting. - [Reserve Bank of Australia Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/reserve-bank-of-australia/): The free RBA watch tool and RBA rate tracker — live cash rate probability from ASX futures for every 2026 Board meeting, recalculated daily. - [Reserve Bank of India Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/reserve-bank-of-india/): The free RBI watch tool — live RBI repo rate probability for every 2026 MPC meeting, with monetary policy analysis, recalculated daily. - [Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand/): RBNZ OCR forecast and Official Cash Rate context for 2026. Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy analysis, Monetary Policy Statement and Monetary Policy Review coverage, and honest limits on New Zealand rate-expectation data. - [SNB Foreign Exchange Intervention](https://centralbank.watch/swiss-national-bank-fx-intervention/): Comprehensive analysis of the Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange intervention strategies, historical context, mechanisms, and market impact. - [Swiss National Bank Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/swiss-national-bank/): The free SNB watch tool — live SNB policy rate probability for every 2026 meeting, with Swiss franc monetary policy analysis, recalculated daily. ## Central Bank Overviews - [🌍 Global Monetary Policy Outlook](https://centralbank.watch/central-banks-overview/global-outlook/): Discover the motivation behind Central Bank Watch, an independent project providing professional-grade central bank analytics for financial professionals and policy enthusiasts. - [Central Bank Models Comparison](https://centralbank.watch/central-banks-overview/comparison/): Comprehensive comparison of macroeconomic models used by major central banks worldwide, highlighting theoretical frameworks, similarities, differences, and model rigor for both beginners and experts - [Central Bank Transparency Index](https://centralbank.watch/central-banks-overview/central-bank-transparency-index/) ## Featured Analysis - [Bank of England Meeting Preview — Rate Decision Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/bank-of-england-meeting-preview-rate-decision-analysis/): Analysis of Bank of England rate decision probabilities for the next MPC meeting. Includes market expectations, Bank Rate assessment, and scenario analysis. - [Bank of England Policy Stance — Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/bank-of-england-policy-stance-analysis/): Assessment of Bank of England policy stance using Taylor Rule analysis. Is Bank Rate restrictive or accommodative relative to UK economic fundamentals? - [ECB Meeting Preview — Rate Decision Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/ecb-meeting-preview-rate-decision-analysis/): Analysis of ECB rate decision probabilities for the upcoming Governing Council meeting. Market expectations, policy stance assessment, and scenario analysis for the European Central Bank. - [ECB Policy Stance — Restrictive or Accommodative?](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/ecb-policy-stance-restrictive-or-accommodative/): Is the ECB's monetary policy restrictive or accommodative? Taylor Rule analysis of the deposit facility rate, inflation dynamics, and the euro area output gap. - [Federal Reserve Meeting Preview — Rate Decision Analysis](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/federal-reserve-meeting-preview-rate-decision-analysis/): Comprehensive analysis of Federal Reserve rate decision probabilities for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Includes market-implied expectations, Taylor Rule assessment, and scenario analysis. - [Federal Reserve Policy Stance — Hawkish or Dovish?](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/federal-reserve-policy-stance-hawkish-or-dovish/): Is the Federal Reserve hawkish or dovish? Model-based analysis of the Fed's policy stance using Taylor Rule methodology, rate gap assessment, and historical comparison. - [Global Interest Rate Outlook — Central Bank Comparison](https://centralbank.watch/analysis/global-interest-rate-outlook-central-bank-comparison/): Global interest rate comparison across the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and other major central banks. Rate forecasts, policy stance divergence, and cross-bank analysis. ## Hawkometer — Central Bank Speech & Communication Sentiment Tracker - [BoC Hawkometer — Bank of Canada Speech Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/boc-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Bank of Canada Governing Council. Tracks public remarks from Governor Macklem, the Senior Deputy Governor and the Deputy Governors on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale. - [BoE Hawkometer — MPC Speech & Communication Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/boe-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. Tracks public remarks from Governor Bailey, the Deputy Governors, the Chief Economist and the External MPC members on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale. - [BoJ Hawkometer — Policy Board Speech & Communication Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/boj-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Bank of Japan Policy Board. Tracks public remarks from Governor Ueda, the Deputy Governors and the Policy Board members on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale. - [ECB Hawkometer — Governing Council Speech & Communication Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/ecb-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the ECB Governing Council. Tracks public remarks from President Lagarde, the Executive Board and key NCB governors on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale, with voter-weighted aggregates. - [Fed Hawkometer — FOMC Speech & Communication Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/fed-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Federal Reserve. Tracks every public speech, interview, testimony and press conference from FOMC members on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale, with voter-weighted committee aggregates and a calendar of upcoming appearances. - [Hawkometer Methodology — How We Score Central Bank Speeches](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/methodology/): Full methodology behind the Hawkometer central bank sentiment index. LLM-assisted scoring engine, weighted phrase library, voter weighting, rolling windows, and a transparent discussion of the limitations of AI-based sentiment scoring of monetary policy speeches. - [PBOC Hawkometer — People's Bank of China Communication Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/pboc-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the People's Bank of China. Tracks public remarks from Governor Pan Gongsheng and the Deputy Governors on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale, calibrated for the PBOC's distinct communication style. - [RBA Hawkometer — Reserve Bank of Australia Speech Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/rba-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Reserve Bank of Australia Board. Tracks public remarks from Governor Bullock, the Deputy Governor and the broader Board on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale. - [RBI Hawkometer — Reserve Bank of India MPC Speech Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/rbi-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee. Tracks public remarks from the Governor, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy and the External MPC members on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale. - [SNB Hawkometer — Swiss National Bank Speech Sentiment Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/hawkometer/snb-hawkometer/): Hawkometer score for the Swiss National Bank Governing Board. Tracks public remarks from Chairman Schlegel and the broader Board on a -10 (dovish) to +10 (hawkish) scale. ## Economic Models - [Bank of Canada Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/bank-of-canada-models/): Comprehensive technical analysis of the Bank of Canada's ToTEM III DSGE model, including structural specifications, calibration methodology, and comparative analysis with other central bank models. Focus on small open economy features and commodity sector integration. - [Bank of England Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/bank-of-england-models/): Deep technical analysis of the Bank of England's COMPASS DSGE macroeconomic model, including current input parameters, theoretical target rate derivation, and insights from the Bernanke Review. - [Bank of Japan Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/bank-of-japan-models/): In-depth analysis of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy framework, interest rate probabilities, TONA market dynamics, and economic scenarios for both beginners and experts. - [European Central Bank Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/european-central-bank-models/): Comprehensive ECB Governing Council rate probability analysis and eurozone insights for financial professionals and policy enthusiasts - [Federal Reserve Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/federal-reserve-models/): Comprehensive analysis of the Federal Reserve's FRB/US macroeconomic model with beginner-friendly and expert-level content - [Reserve Bank of Australia Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/reserve-bank-of-australia-models/): Comprehensive analysis of the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model and economic forecasting framework for monetary policy - [Reserve Bank of India Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/reserve-bank-of-india-models/): Analysis of the Reserve Bank of India's economic modeling framework, DSGE model, and forecasting tools for monetary policy decisions - [Swiss National Bank Economic Models](https://centralbank.watch/central-bank-models/swiss-national-bank-models/): Analysis of the Swiss National Bank's economic modeling framework, DSGE components, and forecasting tools for monetary policy decisions ## General Models - [ASX vs CME: Two Ways to Read Rate Probabilities](https://centralbank.watch/general-models/asx-vs-cme-methodology/): Explains why the RBA Probability Summary (ASX single-step binary method) and the Granular Rate Change Probabilities chart (CME expanding tree) produce different hike percentages for the same meeting — including the full formulas, a worked numerical example, and when each measure is the right one to use. - [CME Expanding Tree Methodology](https://centralbank.watch/general-models/expanding-tree-method/): Detailed explanation of the CME FedWatch Tool's expanding tree methodology for calculating FOMC rate probabilities from Federal Funds futures prices. Learn the assumptions, calculations, and limitations of this widely-used approach to monetary policy expectations extraction. - [Covered Interest Rate Parity Model](https://centralbank.watch/general-models/covered-interest-rate-parity/): Explore the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) model, its mathematical framework, real-world applications, and significance in global financial markets. - [Nelson-Siegel-Svensson Methodology](https://centralbank.watch/general-models/nelson-siegel-svensson/): Comprehensive overview of the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson methodology for yield curve estimation, including interactive demos and practical applications. - [Understanding the Output Gap](https://centralbank.watch/general-models/output-gap-methodology/): Explore the enhanced methodology behind output gap analysis used by central banks, featuring live results and comparisons. - [Understanding the Taylor Rule](https://centralbank.watch/general-models/taylor-rule-methodology/): Explore the Taylor Rule methodology and its application in monetary policy analysis. Understand the key parameters and their significance. ## Cross-Bank Comparison Hub — Differentials, Carry, Divergence - [AUD/USD Rate Differential — RBA vs Federal Reserve](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/aud-usd/): Deep dive on the AUD/USD policy rate differential. The RBA cash rate vs the Fed funds rate, with implications for Aussie carry, commodity beta, and current cycle convergence. - [Cross-Bank Meeting Calendar — Next 6 Months](https://centralbank.watch/compare/meeting-calendar/): Six-month forward calendar of monetary policy meetings across the Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, BoC, BoJ, RBI, SNB, and PBOC, with collision weeks where two or more banks meet within seven days flagged. - [EUR/USD Rate Differential — ECB vs Federal Reserve](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/eur-usd/): Deep dive on the EUR/USD policy rate differential. Current and 12-month forward spread between the Federal Reserve funds rate and ECB deposit rate, with carry implications and recent divergence. - [FX Carry Trade Ranking — All 72 Currency Pairs](https://centralbank.watch/compare/carry-trade-ranking/): Ranking of all 72 ordered FX carry pairs across nine central banks: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD, INR, CHF, CNY. Sorted by current carry, with forward 12-month carry and projected change. - [GBP/USD Rate Differential — Bank of England vs Federal Reserve](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/gbp-usd/): Deep dive on the GBP/USD policy rate differential. Current and 12-month forward spread between the Bank of England Bank Rate and Fed funds rate, with implications for cable. - [Policy Divergence Index and Peak-Spread Pairs](https://centralbank.watch/compare/policy-divergence/): Headline divergence index — the standard deviation of all nine central bank policy rates — plus 12-month projections of when key cross-bank spreads peak and trough. - [Policy Rate Differentials — 9x9 Matrix](https://centralbank.watch/compare/rate-differentials/): Full 9x9 matrix of central bank policy rate differentials covering Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, BoC, BoJ, RBI, SNB, and PBOC. Current spreads and 12-month forward spreads implied from market probability paths. - [Real Rate Differentials — Inflation-Adjusted 9x9 Matrix](https://centralbank.watch/compare/real-rate-differentials/): Real-rate differential matrix across nine major central banks: nominal policy rate minus headline CPI. Compares restrictive vs accommodative monetary stances on a like-for-like basis. - [USD/CAD Rate Differential — Federal Reserve vs Bank of Canada](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/usd-cad/): Deep dive on the USD/CAD policy rate differential. The Bank of Canada vs Federal Reserve rate spread, with carry implications and the BoC-Fed convergence trade. - [USD/CHF Rate Differential — Federal Reserve vs Swiss National Bank](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/usd-chf/): Deep dive on the USD/CHF policy rate differential. The Swiss National Bank vs Federal Reserve rate spread, with implications for carry, safe-haven flows, and SNB intervention dynamics. - [USD/CNY Rate Differential — Federal Reserve vs People's Bank of China](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/usd-cny/): Deep dive on the USD/CNY policy rate differential. The PBOC vs Federal Reserve rate spread, the role of the daily fix, and the interaction between rate differentials and capital controls in the world's most-managed major pair. - [USD/INR Rate Differential — Federal Reserve vs Reserve Bank of India](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/usd-inr/): Deep dive on the USD/INR policy rate differential. The Reserve Bank of India vs Federal Reserve rate spread, with implications for INR carry trades and the structural depreciation tendency of the Indian rupee. - [USD/JPY Rate Differential — Federal Reserve vs Bank of Japan](https://centralbank.watch/compare/currency-pair-deep-dives/usd-jpy/): Deep dive on the USD/JPY policy rate differential. The widest sustained nominal spread among major currencies, with implications for FX carry and BoJ-Fed convergence. ## Financial Tools & Trackers - [Australia ACGB Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/australia-yield-curve/): Live Australian Commonwealth Government Bond (ACGB) yield curve from 3 months to 30 years. Track 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, recession probability, NSS fit, and what the curve implies about RBA policy. - [Australia Mortgage Rates 2026: Variable & Fixed vs RBA Cash Rate](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/australia-mortgage-rates/): Will Australia mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [Austria Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/austria-mortgage-rates/) - [Belgium Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/belgium-mortgage-rates/) - [Canada Government Bond Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/canada-yield-curve/): Live Government of Canada (GoC) bond yield curve from 3 months to 30 years. Track 2s10s, 3m10y, recession probability, NSS curve fit, and what the curve says about Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026. - [Canada Mortgage Rates 2026: 5-Year Fixed vs Bank of Canada Policy Rate](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/canada-mortgage-rates/): Will Canada mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [Central Bank Economic Calendar 2026](https://centralbank.watch/tools/economic-calendar/): Complete central bank meeting calendar 2026 for all 9 major banks — Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, RBA, BoJ, BoC, RBI, SNB, PBOC. Download .ics file for Google Calendar, Outlook, Apple Calendar. - [Central Bank FAQ](https://centralbank.watch/tools/central-bank-faq/): Comprehensive FAQ about central banks and interest rates in 2026. What is the current Fed rate? When is the next ECB meeting? How are rate probabilities calculated? Live data included. - [Central Bank Meeting Calendar 2026](https://centralbank.watch/tools/calendar/): Upcoming central bank meeting dates for all major banks — Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, RBA, and more. Find the next ECB meeting date, FOMC date, and BoE decision date. - [China Government Bond Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/china-yield-curve/): Live China Government Bond (CGB) yield curve from 3 months to 30 years. Track 2s10s, 3m10y, recession probability, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson fit, and what the curve implies about PBOC policy and growth expectations. - [Croatia Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/croatia-mortgage-rates/) - [Cyprus Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/cyprus-mortgage-rates/) - [Estonia Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/estonia-mortgage-rates/) - [Eurozone Bund Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/eurozone-yield-curve/): Live German Bund yield curve from 3-month Schatz to 30-year Buxl. Track 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, recession probability, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson fit, and what the curve implies about ECB rate-cut expectations. - [Eurozone Mortgage Rates 2026: Member-Country Benchmarks vs ECB Deposit Rate](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/eurozone-mortgage-rates/): Will Eurozone mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [Finland Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/finland-mortgage-rates/) - [France Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/france-mortgage-rates/) - [Germany Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/germany-mortgage-rates/) - [Global Recession Probability Dashboard](https://centralbank.watch/tools/recession-probability/): Cross-country recession-probability dashboard built on the NY Fed's Estrella-Mishkin probit model applied to nine sovereign yield curves. Compare 12-month-ahead recession probabilities for the US, Eurozone, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, India, Switzerland, and China. - [Greece Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/greece-mortgage-rates/) - [India G-Sec Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/india-yield-curve/): Live Indian Government Securities (G-Sec) yield curve from 3 months to 30 years. Track 2s10s, 3m10y, recession probability, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson fit, and what the curve implies about RBI policy. - [India Mortgage Rates 2026: Home Loan EBLR vs RBI Repo Rate](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/india-mortgage-rates/): Will India mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [Inflation Divergence Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/tools/inflation-tracker/): Track how far each major central bank is from its inflation target in 2026. Visual progress bars showing CPI vs 2% target for Fed, ECB, Bank of England, RBA, BoJ, and more. - [Ireland Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/ireland-mortgage-rates/) - [Italy Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/italy-mortgage-rates/) - [Japan JGB Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/japan-yield-curve/): Live Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve from 3 months to 30 years. Track 2s10s, 3m10y, recession probability, NSS curve fit, and what the curve implies about Bank of Japan policy normalisation. - [Japan Mortgage Rates 2026: Variable & Flat 35 vs BoJ Policy Rate](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/japan-mortgage-rates/): Will Japan mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [Latvia Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/latvia-mortgage-rates/) - [Lithuania Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/lithuania-mortgage-rates/) - [Luxembourg Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/luxembourg-mortgage-rates/) - [Malta Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/malta-mortgage-rates/) - [Mortgage Rate Transmission Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/): Will mortgage rates go down in 2026? Country-by-country forecasts for the US, Eurozone, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan and India, showing the 12-month mortgage rate implied by interest-rate futures. Updated daily. - [Netherlands Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/netherlands-mortgage-rates/) - [Portugal Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/portugal-mortgage-rates/) - [Real Interest Rate Tracker](https://centralbank.watch/tools/real-interest-rates/): Live real interest rates for 9 major central banks — nominal policy rate minus current inflation. See which economies have positive or negative real rates in 2026. - [Slovakia Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/slovakia-mortgage-rates/) - [Slovenia Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/slovenia-mortgage-rates/) - [Sovereign Yield Curve Monitor](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/): Live sovereign yield curves for the US, Eurozone, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, India, Switzerland, and China. Full term structure 3M-30Y, 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, NY Fed recession probability, and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson curve fits. - [Spain Mortgage Rates: 12-Month Forecast from ECB Pricing](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/spain-mortgage-rates/) - [Switzerland Confederation Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/switzerland-yield-curve/): Live Swiss Confederation bond yield curve from 3 months to 30 years. Track 2s10s, 3m10y, recession probability, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson fit, and what the curve implies about SNB policy. - [UK Gilt Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/uk-yield-curve/): Live UK Gilt yield curve from 3-month T-bills to 30-year long gilts. Track the 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, recession probability, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson fit, and what the curve says about Bank of England policy. - [UK Mortgage Rates 2026: 2-Year Fixed vs Bank of England Bank Rate](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/uk-mortgage-rates/): Will UK mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [US Mortgage Rates 2026: 30-Year Fixed vs Fed Funds](https://centralbank.watch/tools/mortgage-rates/us-mortgage-rates/): Will US mortgage rates go down or up? Today's fixed and variable mortgage rates, the 12-month path implied by interest-rate futures pricing, and how fast policy rate changes actually reach borrowers. Updated daily. - [US Treasury Yield Curve](https://centralbank.watch/tools/yield-curve/us-yield-curve/): Live US Treasury yield curve from 3-month bills to 30-year bonds. Track the 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, NY Fed recession probability, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson curve fit, and what the curve says about Fed rate-cut expectations in 2026. ## Embeddable Central Bank Charts - [Bank of England Rate Probability Chart](https://centralbank.watch/charts/bank-of-england-rate-probability-chart/): Embeddable Bank of England rate probability chart showing market expectations for MPC Bank Rate decisions. Free to embed. - [ECB Rate Probability Chart](https://centralbank.watch/charts/ecb-rate-probability-chart/): Embeddable ECB rate probability chart showing market expectations for Governing Council deposit rate decisions. Free to embed. - [Federal Reserve Rate Probability Chart](https://centralbank.watch/charts/federal-reserve-rate-probability-chart/): Embeddable Federal Reserve rate probability chart showing market-implied FOMC rate decision expectations. Free to use with attribution. - [Global Central Bank Rate Comparison Chart](https://centralbank.watch/charts/global-central-bank-rate-comparison-chart/): Embeddable chart comparing current policy rates vs model-implied theoretical rates across Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and other major central banks. - [RBA Rate Probability Chart](https://centralbank.watch/charts/rba-rate-probability-chart/): Embeddable RBA rate probability chart showing market expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decisions. Free to embed. ## About - [About This Project](https://centralbank.watch/about/motivation/): Learn about the story behind Central Bank Watch - an independent project expanding central bank probability tools beyond the Federal Reserve - [Contact](https://centralbank.watch/about/contact/): Get in touch with Central Bank Watch for questions, feedback, or collaboration opportunities - [Methodology](https://centralbank.watch/about/methodology/) - [Privacy Policy](https://centralbank.watch/about/privacy-policy/): Privacy Policy for Central Bank Watch - Information about data collection and Google Analytics usage