Board composition under the dual-board model

Under the legislative reforms that took effect in 2024, the RBA operates a dual-board structure: a Monetary Policy Board responsible for setting the cash rate, and a Governance Board for management. The Hawkometer covers the speakers on the Monetary Policy Board, including Governor Michele Bullock, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, the Treasury Secretary as an ex officio member, and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, whose speeches on economic conditions are followed closely by AUD rates desks.

The Monetary Policy Board now meets eight times a year — fewer meetings than the previous monthly cadence — which makes inter-meeting communication relatively more important for guiding expectations.

Where the Board sits right now

The 90-day rolling sentiment of the Board, voter-weighted:

Speaker-by-speaker scores

A few RBA-specific notes on how to read this scatter:

• Bullock has set a more open communication style than her predecessor. Her press-conference Q&A regularly produces phrases that the index picks up directly, which contributes to higher day-to-day variance in the Governor’s score.
• Hauser’s framing matters. As the externally appointed Deputy Governor with a Bank of England background, Hauser’s speeches have brought a more explicit “data-dependent” framework to the RBA’s public communication. This shows up as a consistent mild dovish tilt versus pre-reform RBA speakers.
• Treasury Secretary appearances are infrequent but influential. When the Treasury Secretary speaks publicly on monetary-fiscal coordination, markets react. We weight these consistently with other voting members.

Recent speeches and current shifts

Upcoming Board appearances

Set-piece events that move the RBA Hawkometer:

• Post-meeting press conferences by the Governor.
• Statement on Monetary Policy quarterly publication briefings.
• House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics semi-annual hearings.
• Anika Foundation lecture annually in Sydney.
• CEDA and AFR Business Summit keynote speeches.

How this connects to rate decisions

The Hawkometer pairs with our RBA cash rate probability tool and the RBA policy stance analysis to give a three-way read on the next decision: market pricing, model-implied stance and committee communication tone. The RBA tends to telegraph turns in policy more explicitly than the Fed or ECB, which makes Hawkometer shifts particularly informative ahead of meetings.

Limitations specific to the RBA

• Smaller speaker pool. With fewer voting members and fewer set-piece speeches than the Fed or ECB, individual readings carry more weight in the RBA index. The 90-day rolling window mitigates this but does not eliminate it.
• Recent reform regime. The dual-board structure is still relatively new. We monitor whether speech patterns are stabilising under the new structure and may recalibrate weights if a regime shift becomes evident.

For the full scoring methodology and phrase library, see the Hawkometer methodology page.