RBA Hawkometer — Reserve Bank of Australia Speech Sentiment Tracker
Where the RBA Board sits on the hawkish-dovish spectrum, speaker by speaker
Board composition under the dual-board model
Under the legislative reforms that took effect in 2024, the RBA operates a dual-board structure: a Monetary Policy Board responsible for setting the cash rate, and a Governance Board for management. The Hawkometer covers the speakers on the Monetary Policy Board, including Governor Michele Bullock, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, the Treasury Secretary as an ex officio member, and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, whose speeches on economic conditions are followed closely by AUD rates desks.
The Monetary Policy Board now meets eight times a year — fewer meetings than the previous monthly cadence — which makes inter-meeting communication relatively more important for guiding expectations.
Beginner read: The RBA Board sets the cash rate, which influences mortgage rates, savings rates and the Australian dollar. The Hawkometer shows whether Board communication is leaning toward tighter policy or easier policy.
Expert read: The post-reform meeting cadence raises the information value of inter-meeting speeches. The key signal is whether the new Monetary Policy Board's language is converging around the Governor's reaction function or diverging across internal and external voices.
Where the Board sits right now
The 90-day rolling sentiment of the Board, voter-weighted:
How to read the chart: A move toward the red side means RBA speakers are emphasizing inflation risks. A move toward the blue side means they are emphasizing weaker demand, household pressure, or room to cut rates.
How to read the chart: Read the rolling line against the reduced meeting frequency. Persistent drift between meetings can matter more than a single post-meeting statement because there are fewer formal policy updates under the new regime.
Speaker-by-speaker scores
Speaker guide: The speaker chart separates the Governor, Deputy Governor and other Board voices. If several dots move together, the message is more important than one unusual speech.
Speaker guide: Use the scatter to separate Governor-led guidance from broader Board drift. In a small committee, a single set-piece speech can move the distribution, so confirmation across speakers is more valuable than the absolute level of one dot.
A few RBA-specific notes on how to read this scatter:
- Bullock has set a more open communication style than her predecessor. Her press-conference Q&A regularly produces phrases that the index picks up directly, which contributes to higher day-to-day variance in the Governor’s score.
- Hauser’s framing matters. As the externally appointed Deputy Governor with a Bank of England background, Hauser’s speeches have brought a more explicit “data-dependent” framework to the RBA’s public communication. This shows up as a consistent mild dovish tilt versus pre-reform RBA speakers.
- Treasury Secretary appearances are infrequent but influential. When the Treasury Secretary speaks publicly on monetary-fiscal coordination, markets react. We weight these consistently with other voting members.
Recent speeches and current shifts
| Date | Speaker | Title | Type | Score |
|---|
Upcoming Board appearances
Set-piece events that move the RBA Hawkometer:
- Post-meeting press conferences by the Governor.
- Statement on Monetary Policy quarterly publication briefings.
- House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics semi-annual hearings.
- Anika Foundation lecture annually in Sydney.
- CEDA and AFR Business Summit keynote speeches.
How this connects to rate decisions
The Hawkometer pairs with our RBA cash rate probability tool and the RBA policy stance analysis to give a three-way read on the next decision: market pricing, model-implied stance and committee communication tone. The RBA tends to telegraph turns in policy more explicitly than the Fed or ECB, which makes Hawkometer shifts particularly informative ahead of meetings.
Bottom line: Use this page to check whether RBA speeches agree with what markets are pricing. When both point the same way, the next cash-rate decision is easier to interpret.
Bottom line: The strongest RBA signal is alignment between speech drift, cash-rate probabilities and the model-implied stance. Divergence often flags either data sensitivity ahead of CPI/labour prints or a communication lag after a Board reassessment.
Limitations specific to the RBA
- Smaller speaker pool. With fewer voting members and fewer set-piece speeches than the Fed or ECB, individual readings carry more weight in the RBA index. The 90-day rolling window mitigates this but does not eliminate it.
- Recent reform regime. The dual-board structure is still relatively new. We monitor whether speech patterns are stabilising under the new structure and may recalibrate weights if a regime shift becomes evident.
For the full scoring methodology and phrase library, see the Hawkometer methodology page.
Committee speaker scores
| Speaker | Role | Voter | 90d score | 30d shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Bullock | Governor | Voter | — | — |
| Andrew Hauser | Deputy Governor | Voter | — | — |
| Jenny Wilkinson | Treasury Secretary, Board Member (since 2025-06-16, succeeded Kennedy) | Voter | — | — |
| Ian Harper | External Member, Monetary Policy Board | Voter | — | — |
| Carolyn Hewson | External Member, Monetary Policy Board | Voter | — | — |
| Iain Ross | External Member, Monetary Policy Board | Voter | — | — |
| Marnie Baker | External Member, Monetary Policy Board | Voter | — | — |
| Renée Fry-McKibbin | External Member, Monetary Policy Board | Voter | — | — |
| Bruce Preston | External Member, Monetary Policy Board (since 2026-03-01, succeeded Watkins) | Voter | — | — |
| Sarah Hunter | Assistant Governor, Economic | Non-voter | — | — |
| Brad Jones | Assistant Governor, Financial System | Non-voter | — | — |
| Christopher Kent | Assistant Governor, Financial Markets | Non-voter | — | — |
Recent speeches
No scored speeches for Reserve Bank of Australia yet. This list populates automatically as new communications are published.