PBOC Hawkometer — People's Bank of China Communication Sentiment Tracker
Where the People's Bank of China sits on the hawkish-dovish spectrum, given a very different communication style
A different communication culture
The People’s Bank of China does not communicate in the same manner as the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England. There is no equivalent of an FOMC press conference or a forward-guidance paragraph at the end of every meeting. Policy is conveyed through a mix of:
- Working papers and reports published by the PBOC research bureau.
- Speeches by the Governor and Deputy Governors at official conferences and at the Boao Forum.
- State Council press briefings and NPC sessions.
- Quarterly Monetary Policy Reports from the PBOC.
The Hawkometer is calibrated for this style. The phrase library used at the PBOC overlaps with the cross-bank library but adds Chinese-policy-specific phrases — references to “appropriately accommodative” stance, to “reasonable and ample liquidity”, to DR007 and MLF rate guidance — that signal direction in the PBOC’s own vocabulary.
Beginner read: The PBOC does not signal policy like the Fed or ECB. It often uses official reports, liquidity language and carefully chosen phrases. The Hawkometer turns those clues into a simple hawkish-dovish scale.
Expert read: PBOC communication should be read as an instrument-mix signal, not just a policy-rate signal. Language around liquidity, credit support, FX stability, DR007, MLF, LPR and reserve requirements can all shift the effective stance without a conventional rate-meeting framework.
Speakers covered
The Hawkometer covers Governor Pan Gongsheng and the Deputy Governors Xuan Changneng and Lu Lei.
Where the PBOC sits right now
How to read the chart: A rising line means official language is becoming less supportive or more focused on stability and risk control. A falling line means language is becoming more supportive of growth, credit or liquidity.
How to read the chart: The 90-day line is most informative when it moves with changes in liquidity operations or LPR/MLF guidance. Flat readings can still carry policy content when official language is stable but the instrument mix changes.
Speaker-by-speaker scores
Speaker guide: PBOC speakers usually stay close together because policy communication is coordinated. Focus less on who is highest or lowest and more on whether the group is shifting together.
Speaker guide: The scatter is a coordination check. Narrow dispersion is expected; the useful signal is whether the small speaker set jointly changes emphasis on liquidity, credit risk, property-sector support or renminbi stability.
The PBOC scatter is narrow by construction: senior officials communicate with closely coordinated language, so visible dispersion is small. The signal value sits almost entirely in the shift indicator and in the framing of liquidity, the policy rate, and the renminbi.
Recent speeches and current shifts
| Date | Speaker | Title | Type | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | Pan Gongsheng | Measures announced at Hong Kong FIC & Bond Connect Summit | Speech | 0.00 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee | 2026 Q2 (113th) regular meeting communiqué | Speech | -3.00 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Pan Gongsheng | The evolution of financial structure and the modernization of financial markets in China — Lujiazui Forum keynote | Speech | +2.00 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Xuan Changneng | Remarks to World Bank Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, Washington | Speech | +3.00 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Pan Gongsheng | Highlights of Monetary Policies in 2025 | Speech | -3.50 |
| Apr 3, 2026 | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee Q1 2026 Meeting Statement | Speech | -3.00 |
Upcoming appearances
Set-piece events that move the PBOC Hawkometer:
- State Council Information Office press conferences by the Governor.
- Annual NPC and CPPCC sessions in March.
- Boao Forum for Asia in April.
- Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai in June.
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority and IMF joint conferences.
How this connects to rate decisions
The PBOC operates with a wider toolkit than peer central banks: the seven-day reverse repo rate (DR007), the medium-term lending facility (MLF), the loan prime rate (LPR), and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) are all policy instruments. The Hawkometer is one input alongside our PBOC rate analysis. Communication that scores hawkish at the PBOC frequently precedes either an LPR adjustment or a tightening of the FX guidance regime.
Bottom line: Use this page to understand whether PBOC communication is becoming more supportive or more restrictive. Then compare it with actual tools such as the LPR, MLF and reserve requirements.
Bottom line: The strongest PBOC read combines Hawkometer drift with liquidity operations, LPR/MLF settings, RRR guidance and FX fixing behavior. The index is a communication overlay on a multi-instrument policy regime.
Limitations specific to the PBOC
- Translation. Most senior PBOC speeches are delivered in Chinese. We score the English translation when published. Translation lag and idiomatic compression are larger here than at any other central bank tracked by the index.
- Communication style. Phrases the index reads as “neutral” can be substantively informative in Chinese policy context. Readers should pair the Hawkometer reading with the PBOC’s stated policy stance.
- Small speaker pool. With three primary speakers, individual readings have outsized influence. The 90-day window mitigates this only partially.
For the full scoring methodology and phrase library, see the Hawkometer methodology page.
Committee speaker scores
| Speaker | Role | Voter | 90d score | 30d shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Gongsheng | Governor | Voter | +1.00 | — |
| Xuan Changneng | Deputy Governor | Voter | +3.00 | — |
| Lu Lei | Deputy Governor | Voter | — | — |
| Tao Ling | Deputy Governor | Voter | — | — |
| PBOC Monetary Policy Committee | Committee Statement | Voter | -3.00 | — |
Recent speeches
| Date | Speaker | Title | Type | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | Pan Gongsheng | Measures announced at Hong Kong FIC & Bond Connect Summit | Speech | 0.00 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee | 2026 Q2 (113th) regular meeting communiqué | Speech | -3.00 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Pan Gongsheng | The evolution of financial structure and the modernization of financial markets in China — Lujiazui Forum keynote | Speech | +2.00 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Xuan Changneng | Remarks to World Bank Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, Washington | Speech | +3.00 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Pan Gongsheng | Highlights of Monetary Policies in 2025 | Speech | -3.50 |
| Apr 3, 2026 | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee Q1 2026 Meeting Statement | Speech | -3.00 |