Policy Board composition

The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board has nine members: the Governor, two Deputy Governors and six Policy Board members. The Hawkometer covers all of them. After the end of negative interest rates and the unwinding of yield curve control, the Board’s communication has become significantly more consequential for global rates than at any point in the previous decade — and the Hawkometer is calibrated for the post-normalisation policy regime.

The current line-up tracked by the index is Governor Kazuo Ueda, Deputy Governors Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida, and Policy Board members including Naoki Tamura, Asahi Noguchi and Junko Nakagawa.

Where the Board sits right now

The 90-day rolling sentiment of the Policy Board, voter-weighted:

The BoJ index has a wider plausible range than the Fed or ECB equivalents because policy is moving away from a multi-decade ultra-accommodative stance: a phrase that would be read as “leaning hawkish” at the Fed can be read as “decisively hawkish” in the BoJ context.

Speaker-by-speaker scores

What recurs on the BoJ scatter:

• Tamura is the clearest hawk on the Board. His speeches have repeatedly used language about wage-price dynamics that scores hawkish in our library.
• Noguchi has been the consistent dove, repeatedly cautioning against premature tightening and emphasising downside risks to growth.
• Ueda holds the centre with very small drifts. The Governor’s public language remains carefully calibrated; small shifts in his Hawkometer score have historically been disproportionately informative for Japanese government bond yields.
• Uchida is the practitioner. As the Deputy Governor responsible for the operational side of policy, his speeches tend to focus on transmission mechanics and asset purchase guidance, which the index treats as moderately dovish in the current regime.

Recent speeches and current shifts

A persistent positive shift across multiple Policy Board members — particularly if it includes Ueda or Uchida — has historically preceded policy rate hikes. The reverse signal, with multiple members shifting toward language about “softer demand” or “downside risks”, typically precedes a pause.

Upcoming Policy Board appearances

Set-piece events that move the BoJ Hawkometer:

• Post-meeting press conferences by the Governor.
• Keidanren and Keizai Doyukai business association speeches.
• Branch managers’ meetings at the BoJ.
• Policy Board members’ regional speeches to local business communities.
• Jackson Hole and BIS appearances by the Governor.

How this connects to rate decisions

Japanese government bond yields and the yen are unusually sensitive to BoJ communication because the path from current policy to long-run neutral is longer and more uncertain than at any other major central bank. Reading the Hawkometer alongside the BoJ rate path and the JGB curve is one of the higher-information uses of this index.

Limitations specific to the BoJ

• Translation lag and bias. Most BoJ speeches are delivered in Japanese. We score the official English translation when published, which can lag the Japanese version by several hours and may smooth idiomatic emphasis. Readers should treat sub-day-resolution readings with caution.
• Wages season dominates. The Spring shunto wage negotiations and the subsequent Policy Board interpretation of wage outcomes drive a large share of the index variance each year. A Hawkometer reading taken in March or April should be read in the context of the wage round.
• Communication culture. BoJ officials use language deliberately less assertive than their Western peers. Our phrase library is calibrated for the BoJ context, but the index is best read alongside the explicit Statement of Policy released after each meeting.

For the full scoring methodology and phrase library, see the Hawkometer methodology page.