Governing Council composition

The Bank of Canada makes monetary policy by consensus at the Governing Council, comprising the Governor, the Senior Deputy Governor and the Deputy Governors. There is no published vote. That makes the Hawkometer particularly useful for the BoC: it is one of the cleanest available reads on the distribution of views inside a committee that does not publish one.

The current Council tracked by the index is Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, and Deputy Governors Sharon Kozicki and Toni Gravelle.

Where the Council sits right now

Speaker-by-speaker scores

The BoC scatter is the narrowest of the major central banks tracked here. That is a feature of the consensus model, not a bug in the index: the Council aligns publicly even when it disagrees privately, so the visible range compresses. Small movements still matter — a 0.5-point divergence among BoC speakers is often as informative as a 1.5-point divergence at the Fed.

Recent speeches and current shifts

The BoC frequently publishes a Summary of Deliberations several weeks after each decision, which often contains language not in the original statement. When that document drops, the index can shift materially as the Council’s recent communication is scored against the new disclosure.

Upcoming Council appearances

Set-piece events that move the BoC Hawkometer:

• Post-meeting press conferences by the Governor and Senior Deputy Governor.
• Monetary Policy Report briefings.
• House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance appearances.
• Economic Progress Report speeches by Deputy Governors.
• CD Howe Institute and C.D. Howe Monetary Policy Council events.

How this connects to rate decisions

Pair the Hawkometer with the BoC policy rate probability tool and the broader global rate outlook. The BoC’s tight relationship with US conditions means a Canadian Hawkometer reading is often best interpreted alongside the Fed reading: a divergence between the two has historically been a leading indicator of CAD relative-value moves.

Limitations specific to the BoC

• Consensus dampens the signal. The narrow public range of views means the index has lower resolution at the BoC than at the more confrontational committees. We compensate by lowering the lean thresholds when reporting per-bank scores; readers comparing the BoC reading directly against the Fed or BoE should keep that in mind.
• Small speaker pool. With only four senior speakers regularly addressing monetary policy, a single appearance has a larger impact on the rolling average than at larger central banks.

For the full scoring methodology and phrase library, see the Hawkometer methodology page.