Comprehensive FOMC rate probability analysis and market insights
Federal Reserve Analysis's next policy meeting is scheduled for 16 September 2026.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC meets eight times a year to discuss monetary policy and make decisions about interest rates.
These probabilities are cumulative relative to today, not independent bets placed fresh at each meeting: a given meeting's hike probability is the chance the rate is higher than today's level by that meeting date, and it already includes any move priced in for earlier meetings. A higher probability at a later meeting therefore reflects the accumulation of moves priced in over time, not a series of separate coin flips — these figures should not be added, multiplied, or compared across meetings as if each one stood alone.
View market-implied probabilities for FOMC policy decisions on CME Group's official FedWatch Tool. For further details on how these are calculated, see also my methodology page.
Visit CME FedWatch ToolThe Federal Reserve uses various economic models to assess appropriate monetary policy. The indicators below show current values, targets, and gaps that inform policy decisions.
| Indicator | Current | Target/Neutral | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | N/A | 2.00% | N/A |
| Output Gap | -0.23% | 0.00% | -0.23 pp |
| Unemployment | 4.20% | N/A | N/A |
The theoretical rate is derived from a simplified Taylor Rule that considers current inflation, the output gap, and the neutral interest rate. This provides a benchmark for assessing whether current policy is restrictive or accommodative relative to economic conditions.
Note: Model outputs are estimates based on economic data and should not be considered predictions of Federal Reserve actions.
| Meeting Date | Type | Status |
|---|
Markets are pricing in a high probability of rates remaining unchanged at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of a "wait and see" approach as policymakers assess economic data.
Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a limited probability of rate cuts in 2025, with markets expecting policy rates to remain restrictive in the near term.
My probability calculations are based on federal funds futures pricing data, incorporating my enhanced methodology that achieves 96.3% accuracy versus CME FedWatch benchmarks. The model uses adaptive volatility parameters and status quo bias adjustments to provide more accurate probability estimates.
Data Sources: CME Group federal funds futures, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Google News API
Update Frequency: Daily at 6:00 AM EST
Validation: Continuously validated against CME FedWatch official data
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