About This Chart

This chart shows market-implied probabilities for Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decisions at upcoming Board meetings. Probabilities are derived from Australian interest rate futures.

RBA rate probability, defined: it is the percentage likelihood, implied by current futures pricing, that the Board raises, cuts, or holds the cash rate at its next scheduled meeting — not a forecast or opinion, but a direct read of what the futures market is pricing in today.

For the full per-meeting probability table, methodology, and historical context, see the Reserve Bank of Australia Analysis page.

The chart auto-updates with every data refresh.