About This Chart

This chart shows market-implied probabilities for Bank of England Bank Rate decisions at upcoming MPC meetings. Probabilities are derived from SONIA-linked futures.

BoE rate probability, defined: it is the percentage likelihood, implied by current futures pricing, that the MPC raises, cuts, or holds Bank Rate at its next scheduled meeting — not a forecast or opinion, but a direct read of what the futures market is pricing in today.

For the full per-meeting probability table, methodology, and historical context, see the Bank of England Analysis page.

The chart auto-updates with every data refresh.