Meeting Preview

Bank of England Meeting Preview — Rate Decision Analysis

Q: "What is Bank Rate?"

"Bank Rate is the interest rate set by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). It is the rate at which the Bank pays interest on reserves held by commercial banks, and it influences all other interest rates in the UK economy."

Q: "How does the MPC make decisions?"

"The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee votes on Bank Rate and other policy tools. Each member has one vote, and the split of votes is published alongside the decision, giving insight into the committee's policy leanings."

Market-implied probabilities and MPC assessment for the next Bank Rate decision

March 16, 2026 | Updated: March 16, 2026 | Michael Adams | 7 min read

Key Takeaways

SONIA futures pricing reflects market expectations for the Bank of England's next Bank Rate decision.
The MPC votes on Bank Rate, with individual member votes published alongside the decision.
UK CPI inflation and labour market data are key inputs for the rate decision.

Current Market Expectations

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets to set the UK’s Bank Rate. Market-implied probabilities from SONIA-linked futures show expectations for the next decision.

June 18, 2026

Rate probability for boe meeting 2026-06-18

July 30, 2026

Rate probability for boe meeting 2026-07-30

August 6, 2026

Rate probability for boe meeting 2026-08-06

Policy Stance Assessment

Current Rate: 3.75% Theoretical Rate: 6.41% Rate Gap: -2.66%

Rate Gap Evolution

Economic Context

Inflation (CPI): 3.4% (target: 2.0%)
Unemployment Rate: 5.0%
Output Gap: -1.72%

Methodology

This analysis uses SONIA futures-implied probabilities combined with a UK-adapted Taylor Rule model. For details, see our methodology page.

Rate Decision Probabilities

Frequently Asked Questions

Bank Rate is the interest rate set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). It is the rate at which the Bank pays interest on reserves held by commercial banks, and it influences all other interest rates in the UK economy.

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee votes on Bank Rate and other policy tools. Each member has one vote, and the split of votes is published alongside the decision, giving insight into the committee’s policy leanings.

About the Author

Michael Adams

Independent researcher with 20+ years in financial services, specializing in interest rate derivatives, central bank policy analysis, and econometric modeling.

Key Takeaways